Showing posts with label What's the worst that could happen?. Show all posts
Showing posts with label What's the worst that could happen?. Show all posts

Thursday, 10 March 2011

This is how it was. What’s next? Feeling lucky, punks?

Calculated from NASA’s (click for more info) “Five-Year Average Global Temperature Anomalies from 1880 to 2010” and animated. Even a trainee climate scientist has been surprised at how fast things speed up right near the last couple of decades.You need to be at least a little bit scientifically literate to realise why anomalies are way more important to show the trend rather than absolute temperatures – a distinction which many cherry picking denialists, with their “it’s really cold here, so we must be in a cooling trend” garbage thinking cannot get clear in their heads but still, even they must get it, surely?

Note how the warming anomalies are by far the greatest in the Arctic zone where all the permafrost and Northern sea ice is. This is happening far faster than the last full IPCC digest of the science delineated in 2007. Those models did not take this faster heating and consequently faster rate of shrinkage of the ice into account in their models. Neither did they consider the release of methane from the permafrost nor the entrained carbon.

To those complacent enough to comfort themselves with the belief that the models’ predictions are wrong I say – you were right! Sort of. The predictions of the models were wrong – they did not take enough into account – but they were wrong in a bad way. Things are worse than previously suspected. Read again my post of the 19th February entitled  We’re ***’ed (We’re hosed…) which is about melting permafrost. I quoted Greg Craven who spoke recently at the AGU (American Geophysical Union):

AGU rattled me to the core because my worst-case fears were not just confirmed, but exceeded (I found four paleoclimatologists who admitted to making plans for survival retreats), and my last hope–for the scientific community to enter the public debate–was completely dashed.

I’ve since found out directly from Greg that the full story is that, of those he spoke to, he found four who would admit to this but they also confirmed that “many” more that they knew were doing the same.

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Tuesday, 4 August 2009

Reviews of WTWTCH?

Another review for the book - this one absolutely excellent. I really am starting to feel what I had hoped for all along - that this book could make a significant difference to the future path of the world. Yesterday, Barnes and Noble reviewed it and boy - is it good!

Barnes and Noble review



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Wednesday, 29 July 2009

Great reviews of "What's the Worst That Could Happen"

Here are links to a couple of reviews of Greg's book. As I've been plugging it so much, I'm glad to see that independent reviewers share my (biased - I lent a hand with it - damnit!) view that there is something very special about this book. The New Scientist one speaks for itself but the Climate Sight blog is from a well respected and followed "starting out" climatologist.


New Scientist review

Climate sight blog

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Tuesday, 28 July 2009

Greg Craven on TV

This is a link to a TV show with Greg Craven, author of "What's the Worst That Could Happen" explaining the basic idea behind the book (on his local TV station).

http://www.katu.com/amnw/segments/51613927.html



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Monday, 6 July 2009

What’s the Worst That Could Happen?

The book that saves the earth is published tomorrow (Tuesday, July 7th). WHAT'S THE WORST THAT COULD HAPPEN by Greg Craven, assisted by the Manpollo crew (of which I am one), is launched upon an unsuspecting world. It's for non-expert ordinary people everywhere who are just a bit unsure over who to believe in the great global warming shouting match. Few trust governments fully these days so, even if they are just about all telling us the following - that climate change is happening; that it's likely to be an increasingly dangerous problem unless we do A LOT very quickly to head it off and that we need to start fixing the problem now - there's plenty of people who are still doubtful and somehow believe they are being conned. This is because the two sides in the shouting match are not evenly balanced numerically or in terms of credibility, although the way the media portrays it, you wouldn't know this.

The book allows "ordinary Joes" to make up their mind what is the best decision to make to safeguard their - and their family's - future. No-one needs to take a degree in science or be a climate expert to use this book - its basic idea is to use simple techniques of risk assessment to show what the best bet is. It sets out the simple pros and cons of believing either side of the argument and the consequences of either taking action or doing nothing. It uses a simple, but very powerful, decision grid to achieve this. As a side effect, it also shows how the same grid is a very useful way for everybody to make difficult decisions on many of life's problems, where all the facts are not clear and the answers are not obvious. I'll do another post in a couple of days, with plenty of links, but for the time being just click on this image of the front cover.

What's the Worst That Could Happen?
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Sunday, 21 June 2009

What’s the Worst That Could Happen?

Here it is! The "climate change" book, that I helped with some of the research on, is published on July 7th. Embedded below is Greg Craven's own brand new trailer for the book launch. Please watch it and pass on the links from the "more info" side bar. Then buy it!

The book shows ordinary people (non-climate experts!) how to decide what's the best bet for them to safeguard their families even if if they don't understand the claims and counterclaims in the media debate about climate change. It has the spark of genius in it.

Disclaimer: I have no financial interest in this book - just a passionate belief that it might be part of what saves everybody's bacon. Governments and climate scientists are generally pretty firm that there is a big threat. What we need is something that shows the ordinary man-in-the-street how they can make a good sensible decision about what we should do about it. I believe this book is a brilliant example of that.

Using the techniques of risk analysis Greg shows how we can make the best decisions as to what to do when we're not sure of all the facts (or even the facts themselves are not all certain!). His method works for any big decision - not just climate change stuff.



Now you've seen it, please spread the word by any means you can think of. You just might end up being a hero!

I'm sorry that the link to the book etc in this post (and in the side bar) is truncated but my HTML skills aren't up to fixing it yet!


What's the worst that can Happen?




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Sunday, 7 June 2009

Government Leaders Dictating to Mother Nature

The "letter" below is a well written bit of satire taken from Rob Williamson's Greenhouse Neutral Foundation website (click for link). His blog entry (5th June) gives the links to sign the "ban the plastic bag" petition. We Jersey people have made a good at reducing our plastic bag use, but more needs to be done.

Rob Williamson is an Australian who invented a process for recycling polypropylene plastic which won him all sorts of environmental awards. He is just about the same age as me (55). He sold his recycling business and put the proceeds into establishing his Foundation. Good on yer, mate!

You will notice that he has written a book ZERO Greenhouse Emissions – The Day the Lights Went Out – Our Future World which is worth looking at – fortunately, it's not written for the expert so puts climate change, Global Warming and Man's past, present and future into plain language. It also goes into the radically transformative economic effects of climate change which are something that our Council of Ministers seems almost unaware of with their ridiculous business-almost-as-normal "Strategic Plan". This virtually airbrushes out of sight Jersey's much greater than average global responsibility to transition away from what has got to be one of the most extreme consumerist, high “standard of living”, energy and resource guzzling lifestyles in the world.

Our local environmental shadow on the world is huge. If our Ministers realised this, then they would accept that, per person, Jersey residents are fast approaching the most environmentally damaging people in the world. The irony is that we live in a very beautiful, relatively unpolluted "homeland" but, to too many, vision and responsibility stops at the foreshore.

The letter below takes the form of a leaked letter to "Mother Nature", from Government leaders, asking her to back off for a while on the destructive consequences because we haven't cleaned up our climate changing emissions urgently enough. They want to carry on propping up the status quo with their rather short-sighted living one-day-at-a-time method (translation - one political term at a time).

By the way, the excitingly different (funny but serious!) climate change book I helped with (What’s the Worst that Could Happen?) will be published on July 5th and I’ll blog about that nearer the date.

==========================================================

LEAKED GOVERNMENT LETTER

Leaked by a highly reliable government source to Bob Williamson Chair of the Greenhouse Neutral Foundation

HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL – FOR YOUR EYES ONLY

Dear Mother Nature

Would you very much mind delaying your climate change impacts on our species as a result of our commercially driven devastating activities, resulting in but not limited to, the destruction of most other species that inhabit the planet along with us? We are presently experiencing a difficult time to our planned expediential extraction of finite resources on planet Earth.

In a nutshell, we have a short term cash flow crisis due to our rapacious greed and the pursuit of individual global nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). We also presently need to maintain the general public perception that our current unsustainable lifestyles can continue indefinitely.

We would ask that you delay your warming of the planet from our polluting activities for a period of (initially) one to two years – open to our review due to further unexpected commercial circumstances that at this time, we cannot predict. Due to political and commercial pressures during the next 12 months we intend to take no action whatsoever to minimise our environment impact or curb Hothouse Gas pollution. After that time we would seek a commitment from you here, to extend this contract, in terms that will suit our species and the individual commercial circumstance of the industries that run the governments of our respective countries. We would like to point out and make clear to you that at this time we have an 89% backing from those ill informed complacent global citizens /voters who have given their approval by electing us to make this advance to you. They have said it’s our job to lead and we have them on our side LOL.

We offer as an inducement to you, to continue our demonstrated preparedness to blindfold the majority of the global population, to the consequences of our past and present actions. We also offer continuing activities to reduce that which we perceive as a burden on the planet, other species who do not contribute to our global GDP.

We strongly suggest that you use your influence to defer until our further communication, any acts of God that may impact on our financial position as countries; and desist in causing further devastation to the established communities we have constructed for our coastal habitation.

The global insurance industry have kindly sponsored this letter and we have the full backing of the Coal, Oil and Gas industry lobbies along with our other corporate backers who continue to provide their (behind the scenes) support. They assure us and we assure you, that this is in our best vested interests at this time. We can also state openly here that this approach to you is backed up by the majority of the global population that has not a bloody clue, as to what we are all about.

We also notify you here, just for your information, that we are committed to supporting our financial backers and will resist any and all global discussion of a tax on pollution such as the implementation of a Carbon Tax. We know this may fix the contamination of the atmosphere by our supporters that profit from the activity, but we also know that 89%+ of the population don’t, so we have an edge on intelligence or the suppression of it.

We acknowledge this is a long letter and you have other things to do such as melting the polar ice caps and planning a few droughts, so we will accept none responsiveness as your agreement.

Thanks; and by the way we are not negotiating, we are telling you.



Signed for and on behalf of all global politicians elected to make decisions for everyone else.

PS. In closing we will deny we ever wrote this letter, so don’t even think about making it public!



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